Launch Market Shakeup: New Rockets, Old Challenges
Maxime Puteaux, Principal, Novaspace
The launch industry is experiencing a period of significant transition marked by both increased demand for launch services and a growing number of new players entering the market. Traditional launch providers are facing supply bottlenecks and aim to challenge SpaceX, while challengers like Relativity Space and Rocket Lab are accelerating their plan to enter the heavy launcher segment.
The light at the end of the tunnel
Established launch providers like Arianespace, ULA, and MHI have been crucial players in the global launch market, offering reliable services for a wide range of satellite and spacecraft missions. However, these companies are currently grappling with several challenges that have led to launch scarcity.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), Arianespace, and United Launch Alliance (ULA) are currently navigating a challenging transition period as they phase out their older, established launch vehicles in favor of new-generation rockets. MHI is moving from its H-IIA and H-IIB rockets to the next-generation H3, designed to offer more flexibility and lower costs; however, development setbacks have delayed its full operational debut. Arianespace retired the reliable Ariane 5 and introducing the Ariane 6, which aims to be more competitive with lower launch costs and improved efficiency, but persistent technical issues and schedule delays have stalled its market entry. ULA is in the process of transitioning from the Delta IV and Atlas V rockets to the Vulcan Centaur, which promises enhanced performance and cost-efficiency but has faced its own series of delays due to technical and supply chain challenges. These companies are betting on their new launchers to restore competitiveness and meet rising market demand, but the slow pace of these transitions has left a temporary gap in their launch capabilities, putting them under pressure as they compete against rapidly evolving market dynamics and disruptive players like SpaceX. Companies like Amazon’s Project Kuiper, which require dozens of launches to deploy their constellations, are contributing to the high demand that current launch providers struggle to meet.
A surge of micro and small launchers entering a difficult market
Amidst the scarcity of launch slots, a new generation of micro-launchers is emerging to meet the needs of small satellite operators. These micro-launchers offer more flexibility for small satellite operators who may not want to wait for a rideshare on a larger launcher like SpaceX’s Falcon 9. They are also capable of providing tailored orbits that are not easily accessible through rideshare missions. However, micro-launchers still face challenges, such as achieving cost competitiveness and ensuring a consistent launch cadence to meet growing demand.
In the meantime, incumbent players such as Rocket Lab with its Electron rocket, Relativity Space are rapidly moving ahead with larger launcher to capture a larger slice of the market underserved by the larger launch vehicles. Rocket Lab, for example, is expanding its operations with the introduction of the Neutron launcher, a medium-lift vehicle that will compete in a different class than its small Electron rocket. Relativity Space, which initially bet on innovative 3D-printed manufacturing for Terran-1 shifted to more traditional manufacturing process for its larger Terran-R.
Falcon 9’s offset western heavy launchers’ troubles
SpaceX continues to be a dominant force in the launch market, with its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets frequently launching payloads for both commercial and government customers. The company’s rideshare missions have particularly disrupted the small satellite market, offering low-cost access to space that many micro-launchers find difficult to match.
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 has established a dominant position in the global launch market, driven by its high launch cadence, rapid turnaround capabilities, and cost-effective reusability. In 2023, SpaceX completed a record-breaking 61 launches with Falcon 9, nearly doubling its total from the previous year and accounting for about 60% of all global orbital launches. The rocket’s ability to land and reuse its first stage significantly reduces costs and turnaround times, allowing for launches as frequently as once every 5-7 days. Falcon 9 has maintained an average of two launches per week in 2024, showcasing unmatched operational efficiency and reliability. The vehicle’s success is bolstered by its proven track record, which includes over 250 consecutive successful landings of first-stage boosters and more than 230 reflights, making it the most flown operational launcher in the world. This dominance has allowed SpaceX to capture a substantial share of the commercial satellite market, including rideshare missions that cater to small satellite operators, further cementing Falcon 9’s leading role in the launch industry.
SpaceX’s Starship is right on the corner
Looking ahead, SpaceX’s Starship promises to further disrupt the market. With an unmatched payload capacity of up to 150 metric tons to low Earth orbit in reusable mode, Starship could redefine the economics of space access. It is designed to drastically lower launch costs through full reusability and massive scale, potentially enabling a new wave of larger, more capable satellites that were previously constrained by the limitations of existing launch vehicles.
However, Starship’s full integration into the commercial launch market is expected to be gradual. Initially, the vehicle will focus on fulfilling SpaceX’s commitments to NASA’s Artemis program and the company’s own Starlink constellation launches. It will take time for Starship to prove its reliability and economic advantages, and conventional satellite operators may be slow to adapt their designs to fully exploit its capabilities.
The emergence of Starship poses both opportunities and challenges for the broader launch industry. While it could drive down costs and enable ambitious new missions, there are concerns that SpaceX’s increasing market share could lead to monopolistic behavior. With traditional launch providers struggling to keep pace, and new entrants still finding their footing, SpaceX’s dominance could stifle competition and innovation in the long term.
Furthermore, while SpaceX has publicized significant potential cost reductions, there is no guarantee that these savings will be passed on to customers. The near-monopoly situation that SpaceX may find itself in could limit the competitive pressure necessary to keep prices low, potentially disadvantaging satellite operators and smaller launch companies.
The launch market is at a critical juncture. While new comers and innovative technologies promise to address some of the current supply challenges, the growing influence of SpaceX, particularly with the introduction of Starship, could reshape the market landscape in ways that are both exciting and concerning. The industry will need to adapt rapidly to these changes to ensure a balanced and competitive market that continues to foster innovation and growth in the space economy.
Maxime Puteaux works as a Principal at Novaspace, Paris since 2012. He leads the Infrastructure center of expertise. He manages from end to end a team consulting focusing on upstream topics of the space industry. Maxime is the Editor-in-Chief of Novaspace’s research report Satellites to be built and launched and created the Space Logistics Markets report in 2022.
Japan’s Brand-New Launch Vehicle, H3, Debuted
Mayuki Niitsu, Senior Specialist for LV Program and Former Program Manager for H3 Development, Space Systems Division, Integrated Defense & Space Systems, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
Introduction
On 17/2/2024, JAXA/MHI launched H3 Test Flight no. 2 (TF2) from Tanegashima Space Center (TNSC), (Figure-1) The vehicle was successfully injected into the pre-planned sun-synchronous orbit. Separation of the two small satellites onboard and the 2nd firing of the upper stage engine for the controlled reentry as a debris mitigation measure were also conducted as planned. This was the first successful flight of H3 launch vehicle after a year-long struggle following pre-mature flight termination of the Test Flight no. 1 (TF1) due to 2nd stage engine ignition failure.
Purpose of H3 Development
H3 is Japan’s brand-new primary launch vehicle and the successor to the current workhorse H-IIA. JAXA/MHI started H3 development back in 2014. Primary objective of the H3 development was to secure Japan’s ability of access to space, to maintain the autonomy of space activity, and to enlarge Japan’s industrial base by increasing the number of launches. To realize the goal, we set ‘user-oriented’ as the basic principle, and introduced 3 concepts, 1. Competitive price and launch capability, 2. Flexible schedule, and 3. Benign mechanical environment for spacecrafts, to attract potential customers in the commercial market.
Primary Features of H3 and Technology Heritage
H3 launch vehicle has several configurations with different numbers of first stage engines (LE-9) and solid rocket boosters (SRB3), and different types of payload fairing (PLF) to support a wide range of customers. The configuration is differentiated by two digits and one capital letter following H3. H3-22S is the configuration with 2 LE-9 engines, 2 SRB3s, and a short fairing, and used for TF2 and the third flight of H3 (F3). H3-24L or -24W are the most powerful version with 4 SRB3s and long or wide PLF. H3-30 is the smallest version intended to be used for institutional missions with 3 LE-9s and no SRB3. Maximum launch capability of H3 is about 7 metric tons to GTO with delta V of 1500m/sec, which is more than double of that of H-IIA.
H3 launch vehicle design is based on the JAXA/MHI’s decades-long experiences of design/development, manufacturing, and operation of liquid propellant launch vehicles. To realize afore-mentioned H3 design concepts while maintaining high reliability, we carefully assessed and determined what to be retained and what to be drastically changed. Figure-2 shows the technology heritage from H-IIA and H-IIB. Although H3 is the brand-new launch vehicle, most of the design is based on the well-proven technologies.
LE-9 Engine and Solid Rocket Booster
One of the significant design features of H3 is the brand-new first stage engine, LE-9. This is the world’s first ‘Expander Bleed Cycle Engine with large thrust of 150 tons’. The expander bleed cycle, shown in Figure-3, is one of the liquid-propellant engine cycles, in which the turbine pump is driven not by combustion gas generated in the designated sub-combustion chamber, but by evaporated propellant gas generated by heat exchange through the main combustion chamber. The turbine-driving gas is not returned into the main combustion chamber but dumped into the nozzle, which is so-called ‘Open Cycle’. Compared with the first stage engine for H-IIA, LE-7A, which is the staged-combustion cycle engine, LE-9 is much simpler, less expensive, and above all, much safer in that the turbine power is self-regulated by the main combustion chamber. Although the performance or ISP is not as good as that of LE-7A, the intrinsic safety of LE-9 is of vital importance for the booster engine of reliable launch vehicle.
The solid rocket booster for H3, SRB-3, fully utilizes the design heritage of SRB-A (solid rocket booster for H-IIA). The size and design of the motor-case and the nozzle is basically the same. SRB-3, however, introduces new design features at the same time to realize reduced cost. One of the primary differences between SRB-3 and SRB-A is connecting structure for the solid rocket and the core vehicle. The number of attachment points is reduced from 8 down to 4. The number of the pyro-devices used for separation is also reduced by implementing ‘separation thruster’ which realizes two functions, to disconnect and to generate separation force, with one device. Another difference is the fixed nozzle for SRB-3 compared with the flexible nozzle for SRB-A. In H3, gimbaling function for the whole vehicle is allocated to the core engine alone and hence, the solid rocket booster is much simplified.
Design Features for Reduced Cost
Design features of the other sub-systems and components are mostly described by common concepts of ‘simplification’ ‘generalization’ ‘automation’ and ‘commonization’ to reduce cost. For example, usage of special material and space-grade components are minimized. As for avionics, electrical parts for automobile are extensively used in place of dedicated space-grade parts. To maintain resistance to radiation environment in space, rad-hard parts are selected through series of radiation tests. Less expensive material, pressure sensors/temperature sensors and valves of industry-grade are applied to propulsion system. Another example is commonization of energy source for effectors. Usage of pneumatics and hydraulics is eliminated for 1st stage. EMA (electro-magnetic actuators) is used for engine gimbaling instead of hydraulic actuators, and solenoid valves/motor valves are used for engine and propulsion system instead of pneumatic valves.
Figure-4 shows examples of automation and simplification. Structure assemblies are mostly done by automated fastening machines which conduct drilling, fastening, and inspection of hole size and fastener installation. Spherical domes for propellant tanks are manufactured through spin-forming as one-piece including portion of cylinder which eliminates expensive ring frames connecting the dome and cylinder. 3-D printing is used for manufacturing small-size components with complex-shape like the injector of the engine, the casing for valves, and the manifold for pipes. These design and manufacturing features contribute to significant cost reduction of H3 launch vehicle.
Design Features for Flexible Schedule
Another design feature of H3 is reduction of function-test period. As for H-IIA, dedicated FTE (Function Test Equipment), test cables and test set-up are required. Access to the avionics boxes inside the vehicle is also required, which involves significant amount of task especially during launch campaign on site. As for H3, all avionics components are connected via network, and integrated into the components are self-test functions and memory functions of test results. As a result of that, function tests can be easily conducted via network without access to the components nor configuration change. With this design feature and others, the period of launch campaign is reduced to less than half of that of H-IIA, and contributes to realize ‘Flexible schedule’.
Design Features for Reduced Environment
‘Benign mechanical environment’ is another H3 concept to be achieved. Through detail assessment of H-IIA/H-IIB flight data, and by applying preventive measures to the sources of vibrations, H3 mechanical environment is less severe compared with H-IIA/H-IIB. It’s even better than other launch vehicles of similar size. Figure-5 shows some of those features. As for lift-off acoustic environment, the top surface of movable launcher (ML) is flattened with protrusions removed, and the cut-out is enlarged so that engine plume does not interfere with the ML structure and generate acoustic noise. As for in-flight acoustic environment, the PLF configuration is changed from conical to ogive shape so that outer flow does not detach and generate shock waves, which is the cause of the in-flight noise and vibration. Engine support structure for the 2nd stage engine is an important improvement from H-IIA/H-IIB. The stiffness of the support structure is carefully designed so that interaction between structure and propulsion vibration does not cause undesirable low-frequency vibration of the vehicle. This is why H3 introduces the conical support structure for the engine unlike H-IIA/H-IIB where the engine is directly attached to the liquid oxygen tank dome. The effectiveness of these design features is successfully confirmed through H3 flight data so far.
Development History and Major Setback
H3 development started in 2014. Figure-6 shows typical development tests. Although there were many technical issues along the path, JAXA/MHI managed to keep the development on track until 2020 to perform the H3 inaugural flight within the Japanese fiscal year of 2020. During the qualification firing tests of LE-9, however, major technical issues surfaced. A crack of turbine blade of fuel turbine pump (FTP) and opening of inner surface of the main combustion chamber (MCC) were detected during the post-test inspection after the 8th firing test. Following these detections, JAXA/MHI decided to postpone the H3 first flight.
Root cause of the opening of the MCC was progressive deformation due to repeated heat load. The temperature of the inner wall was higher than prediction, and the local thermal deformation further increased the local heat influx and then accelerated the deformation. As the countermeasure, the engine operational condition was adjusted so that the MCC wall temperature remained within the allowable limit where the detrimental deformation is prevented.
Root cause of the FTP crack was fatigue due to vibration resonance. To identify the relevant vibrational mode, the blade stress was directly measured while the engine and the turbine pump were in operation. It was found that many vibrational modes showed much higher responses, and the issue was caused by the high-order mode which had been evaluated to have insignificant responses. To fix this issue, the turbine blades had to be totally re-designed to avoid vibration resonances within operational range, not only for the fuel turbine pump but also for the liquid oxygen turbine pump. It took almost 2 years to determine the final configuration, to validate the design, and to complete the qualification firing tests for LE-9. H3 TF1 was, at last, launched on March 7 2023, postponed from its initial schedule by 2 years.
From TF1 Launch Fail to ‘Return to Flight’
The 1st stage flight of TF1 was almost perfect. Flight sequences from LIFT-OFF to MECO (Main Engine Cut-Off), including SRB-3 separation, PLF jettison, and stage separation all went well as planned. However, we failed to ignite the 2nd stage engine. Destruction command was sent, and the mission was terminated. Flight data showed the engine driving-power was shut down after detecting anomaly, either over-voltage or over-current. Although the power line is redundant, both A and B systems detected anomalies, and both were shut down. After having significant amount of tests and analyses, JAXA/MHI concluded the ignition failure occurred in one of the following 2 modes. The 1st one is ground fault of the engine exciter due to minor manufacturing error aggravated by flight environment. The 2nd one is the over-voltage provided by vehicle component at the 2nd engine ignition, which caused the short-circuit inside A-system, and the anomaly was propagated to B-system through the common ground line. All possible countermeasures were applied to the exciter and the avionics component, including enhanced insulation and inspection, revise of the electrical parts to increase resistance to over-voltage and failure propagation. Flight data monitoring was also enhanced. With these countermeasures, H3 TF2 was launched on February 17, 2024, and JAXA/MHI made the successful return to flight.
Conclusion
On July 1, 2024, JAXA/MHI launched H3 F3 with ALOS-4 on board, an earth observation satellite of JAXA, and the flight was also successful. Detailed flight data analysis showed the whole vehicle system functioned as planned. No major anomalies nor findings which require immediate design change were observed. Now that we had two consecutive successful flights, H3 is ready to provide launch services to waiting customers. We also acknowledge the market demand has been changing and diversifying significantly. To respond to such demand, H3 continues to evolve in terms of launch capabilities and mission varieties through upgrade programs and provides launch services to a wide range of potential customers worldwide.
Mayuki Niitsu is the former Program Manager of H3 Launch Vehicles at MHI. Niitsu led the development of H3 at MHI since 2014 as Technical Head, and as the Program Manager of H3 program from 2023 and 2024. As Program Manager, he experienced both the failure of maiden launch and the successful return to flight of H3. Niitsu started his career in the space industry over three decades ago at MHI as a structural engineer. He was engaged in development of the Japanese Experiment Module for the International Space Station, development of HOPE program also known as the Japanese version of Space Shuttle and development of launch vehicles, through H2, H2A and H2B. He holds a master’s degree in aerospace engineering from University of Tokyo in Japan.
Interview with
Martijn Blanken, CEO of Neo Space Group (NSG)
Martijn Blanken is the Chief Executive Officer of Neo Space Group (NSG). With extensive experience in CEO and executive leadership roles, he has built a successful track record of delivering growth in complex international environments. Before joining NSG, Martijn was the CEO of EXA Infrastructure, and had previously served as Senior Advisor to Digital Infrastructure investors, leading the acquisition of EXA by I Squared Capital.
Martijn was previously the Group Managing Director of Telstra Enterprise and served on the Executive Committee of Telstra Corporation. During his tenure at Telstra, he also was the CEO of Telstra Global, which under his leadership transformed into the leading service provider in Asia Pacific. Prior to his time at Telstra, he was the SVP for Asia Pacific at Openwave Systems and has also held several executive positions at KPN Royal Dutch Telecom. Martijn has lived and worked extensively across Asia, Europe, Australia, and the Americas, currently residing in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He holds an MBA from the University of Groningen in the Netherlands.
Q: What key trends are shaping the satellite and space industry in Asia-Pacific?
The satellite and space industry in Asia-Pacific is undergoing rapid transformation, fueled by technological breakthroughs and cheaper access to space. This is driving down costs, improving user experiences, and expanding opportunities. We are zeroing in on high-growth areas like satellite communication, geospatial services, and IoT. Especially in earth observation use cases, Artificial Intelligence is at the forefront as it is a prerequisite for analyses very large amounts of data to provide the insights and answers customers are looking for.
Next, technology partnerships are essential to drive innovation, even for ‘vertically integrated’ companies, as no-one can do it all in-house. Furthermore, many technologies which are already common in the telecom sector are making their entry into the satcom sector. For example, software-defined networking, network virtualization, and cyber security software, now enable seamless integration of satellite services across multiple environments including terrestrial networks.
Emerging global standards like 3GPP non-terrestrial networks are making it easier to mix different communication systems. Meanwhile, digital phased arrays are replacing traditional antennas to maintain uninterrupted connectivity in vehicles. Handheld devices are also evolving into satellite terminals, boosting safety, remote education, and telemedicine. These innovations are making space-based connectivity more accessible, opening up new opportunities across the global space economy.
Q: What role does NSG play in Saudi Arabia’s space sector?
NSG is spearheading commercial satellite and space activities in Saudi Arabia, aligning with Vision 2030’s goals of innovation, economic diversification, and global leadership. Unlike other entities, NSG focuses on the commercial sector, working closely with the Saudi Space Agency (SSA) and the Communications, Space, and Technology Commission (CST) and many of the key players in the Saudi Arabian private sector, for example Aramco. While the SSA handles non-commercial projects and CST oversees regulation, NSG is leading the charge in commercial satellite technology.
Martijn Blanken at Fireside chat during WSBW. (source: NSG)
Q: How is Neo Space Group leveraging technology to enhance services?
NSG is at the forefront of integrating the latest technologies, especially Artificial Intelligence (AI), to enhance services across its business verticals. With AI driving advancements in Earth Observation and geospatial intelligence, NSG recently secured a permit to operate the Kingdom’s geospatial marketplace platform. The platform can handle data from multiple sensor types, including space, aerial, and ground sources.
NSG is also pioneering inflight connectivity improvements through its partnership with SES.
Q: What challenges does the satellite industry face today?
The satellite industry is dealing with a wide variety of significant challenges, including complying with a dynamic regulatory environment, increased focus on cybersecurity, and a highly competitive landscape. Also the trend toward multi-orbit and mega- constellations is reshaping the industry, and raising the barrier to entry.
One of the biggest challenges in our view seems to be about getting access to the right type and amount of capital. High existing debt burdens and high development costs prohibit many promising innovative ideas to become a reality. That is one of the reasons why the industry has seen a wave on consolidation efforts. Although it will help to address some of the capital challenges, it will not be enough. Well-funded new entrants with a clear vision and mandate like NSG, will be instrumental to advance the state of this industry.
Q: How do regulatory frameworks impact operations?
Navigating regulatory frameworks is a complex task, with challenges ranging from aligning licensing procedures across countries to complying with international debris mitigation standards. Spectrum sharing requirements add another layer of complexity, emphasizing the need for fair competition and access.1 However, these regulations also play a crucial role in maintaining a sustainable and safe space environment, fostering innovation, and ensuring a level playing field in the satellite industry.
Martijn Blanken at Fireside chat during WSBW with moderator Olivier Badard,
Managing Director of Majugani Development. (source: NSG)
Q: What’s Neo Space Group’s vision for the next 5-10 years?
We aim to become the national champion in satellite and space in Saudi Arabia as well as an undisputed leader in this industry in the MENA region and beyond. To achieve that NSG will grow its footprint in multi-orbit satellite services, geospatial services, and PNT services. In the first half of 2025 it will also set up a venture capital fund to invest in promising start ups in these domains and other new space sectors, like space logistics.
In doing so, the company is pursuing organic investments, strategic partnerships and acquisitions. The recent acquisition of Taqnia ETS by NSG exemplifies our commitment to expanding capabilities and integrating expertise, reinforcing our position as a leading force in the geospatial services sector.
By the mid-2030s, industries such as logistics, defense, retail, and digital communications will dominate the space economy, with NSG positioned as a key player. NSG is committed to fostering global collaborations and local partnerships to advance the sector’s growth in Saudi Arabia, and globally.
Q; Why is collaboration vital for driving innovation?
Partnerships are essential for advancing innovation. We work closely with entities like the Saudi Space Agency, which has key relationships with international space organizations such as NASA and ESA. The company’s recent partnerships with SES and Display Interactive highlight its commitment to integrating satellite communications with aviation and expanding geospatial capabilities.
NSG’s alliances are cultivating a competitive local satellite sector, empowering a skilled workforce, and nurturing homegrown technologies. The company continues to expand its technology base through mergers, acquisitions, and investments in promising startups.
Q: What advice do you have for new companies entering the space industry?
For newcomers, collaboration is key. The satellite industry requires a wide range of technologies and skills, making partnerships essential for success. Our strategy involves building strong relationships with industry experts to deliver top-tier services to customers. Also, investing in your people is key. We prioritize hiring and developing talent, equipping our teams with the skills needed to stay at the forefront of the industry, and fostering a culture of continuous learning to drive long-term growth and innovation.